The fact that the capital of Kabul and all Afghanistan suddenly fell into the hands of Taliban that could be added to the list of big and American intelligence failures in recent decades. The collapse of Afghanistan, at least two wars That Israel unintentionally bought Hamas, September 11, the Pearl Harbor and other major events were the major failures of American and Israeli intelligence. The official reports were previously discovered at least 3 issues. Genesis and US military officials are surprised by the rapid collapse of the Government and Afghan Army. Source: JPOST Bubble DisabilityLike any large organization, three major intelligence agencies of Israel and 17 US professional agencies led by CIA, always have problems and also suffer from similar misunderstandings
. Analysts gave the same conclusions because they are interacting with similar limited data and in a similar bubble environment. Medium Law Most intelligence analysts are based on middle predictions jar. Thus, if they are wrong, they are like others, not shameful at a personal perspective
In contrast, if they make bold predictions outside the average rule and what most analysts are saying and they are wrong, their careers can be ruined. These factors are not recommended encouraging bold predictions even if analysts can see a large change in the future. Short-term minds in most intelligence communities, have a large amount of short-term and immediate data to attend Newspaper short-term trends daily and monthly. Intelligious analysts will often acknowledge that the number and nature of this data is incorporated by continuous questions and requirements from political worlds to pay attention to short-term problems rather than those Long-term prospects. This means that many analysts are less likely to be surprised when missing daily changes, but are more likely to miss or underestimate models and forecast changes Short term has been carefully calicial. Politician politicians, and sometimes those who give them intelligence analysis, do not like to be discussed inconvenient truths. Although US President Joe Biden has a standard and more open analysis process than predecessor Donald Trump, he may have promoted better predictions in Afghanistan. Some specific examples of How these failures take place: War Gaza 2021 A series of consistent estimates of Israeli intelligence with nearly 7 years of experience indicating that Hamas will not risk war with Israel with an actions like Rocket to Jerusalem . Based on a backward analysis, this consensus said Hamas's leaders are increasingly disappointed because they have not achieved better economic goals. The analysis also missed confidence in accumulation in Hamas leaders that Israel will withdraw from a big war as long as Hamas's missile firepower still exists in a short time, even for the goal of Jerusalem
Gaza 2014 Paintings in 2021, Nearly 3 years of reporting and experience show that Hamas has been prevented from a scale war with Israel. Once again, most Israeli analysts lowered concerns of minority analysts that with a bad economic situation, Hamas may have become so desperate, they will not pass it Fear of Israeli retonstration. Threatening from Hezbollah's tunnel and Hamascho until Hamas to successfully attack many Israeli cars during the Gaza War in 2014, the Israeli defense force (IDF) considers the threat from the tunnel It is too small to invest in significant funding or effort to overcome. After many years of billions of dollars, IDF finally succeeded in destroying asymmetric war advantages in Hamas and Hezbollah.Iraq tunnel to say that this regime has an advanced nuclear program. American President George W. Bush has intervened publicly in the process of analyzing intelligence information and selective details that supported their logic that Iraq has an advanced nuclear weapon program to Support for their invasion items. There are many other reasons why the government wants to invade Iraq, but political interventions in the intelligence process to present to the United Nations and the US Congress The threat of serious potential nuclear nuclear weapons is an important part of the political action needed to support the invasion. Suspecting 11/9 The lack of imagination in combination with failure in dividing Sharing information among US intelligence agencies made the US completely unexpectedly before the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 aimed at New York and the Washington DC area. Changing the model and does not overlook the threats from the Holy Wars will help the US better protect and prepare. Surprise Pearl Harbor This is considered one of the first major failures of the era Modern intelligence, in which Americans are simply KH . Dịch vụ:
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