According to HSBC warned, the Central Bank should be cautious, because each rate increase may cause slower growth than before, when Fed Chairman began the process of rate hikes suat.0: 00/4 : domain 31Nu namanh illustrations. Source: Internet.Kiem inflation totTrong context labor market continued to recover and prices have escalated with rapid speed, chairman US Federal Reserve System (Fed) Jerome Powell seems ready articles speed buy assets and raise policy rates. According to the American economist Ryan Wang of HSBC, time adjusting speed property purchase will fall in around March, and will have four corrections policy rates by the end of 2023, with the first phase on May 6
. first experts from HSBC analysis, the impact of this action for the Asian region rather lightly for reasons such as: first, inflationary pressures are no longer heavy at most countries in the region than the US and can not afford to become severe in the future gan.Thu two, during this time period, the process of economic recovery in the US is increasingly less relevant to the import operation, because opening the economy to boost demand for services rather than goods, which made the traditional engine of growth from west to east is weak di.Thu three, the international balance of payments help strengthen the Bank central Asia ahead of Fed comfort
"However, some areas still need adjustments as in Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Malaysia and Phillipnes, we expect adjusted interest rates 25-50 basis points throughout 2023 than before. In India, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, we also adjusted forecast adjusted time soon on a two week, although not change the level of tightening until the end of 2023. In Indonesia, we have pruning a correction to raise interest rates because inflation dropped significantly, though, we are still another 100 basis points in the period to increase the required reserve ratio. Meanwhile, in mainland China and Japan, the policy rate in 2023 is likely not changed or affected by the Federal Reserve, is likely to apply the easing measures objectives, especially in China, "HSBC vong.Truoc period which, according to many observers, the Central Bank in Asia, when the US central bank has certain move, the central bank in the often in very close area. In the current cycle, the pressure to follow the Fed's move is not too large, the majority of central banks in Asia tend to slow down compared to Fed.Ly explanation for this, HSBC said, inflation was relatively well controlled. Furthermore, countries with a strong position in international payments can also more flexible in making moves slow response of US policy tightening. Can look at this in two ways namely: First, the current account which is considered "defense shield" the first in the event of volatility on global financial markets. The index is maintained in the region and is considered better than the previous cycle of Fed tightening
Particularly India and Indonesia are the two Indian exception but their deficits are in manageability and lower than the previous cycle. Sri Lanka also quite difficult at khan.Hai situation is, to consider "safety cushion" is set in terms of "real policy rates." Specifically, the most important thing here is the difference in interest rates of effective management in the country with the United States: the positive difference that will significantly help retain or attract more capital inflows, so the central bank need not tighten ve.Dieu tight to self-care policy trongTrong recent months, expectations clear policy tightening has increased, whether in America or anywhere in the world. However, it is important to note that the scope to raise interest rates depends on the interest rate "neutral" for a certain economy. This index changes over time but also changed certain patterns in recent decades, reducing the "ceiling" adjustable rate hikes before tightening monetary policy will limit the increase truong.Bieu can map currently operating current interest rates in the region and forecasts of interest rates by the end of 2023. neutral (Source: HSBC) in most economies, policy rates still need many new upward adjustments to neutral threshold. In fact, compared with the average of previous pandemics, the neutral interest rate has fallen further. This means that the central bank will need to be cautious because each rate increase may cause slower growth than before ... certainly that is something to consider when Chairman Powell began the process of rate hikes productivity. "In the context of preparing the Fed policy adjustments, we evaluate the pressure that Asian central banks face to keep and promote the adjustment of policy rates quickly assess my hon.Chung , the risk of inflation seems under control and stable balance of payments. However, it should maintain the actual interest rate buffer but the neutral interest rate reduction also map . Dịch vụ:
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