In addition to revenue from credit, interest income and costs cuts are the main motivations affecting the growth of banks in the second half of the year ... 0: 00/4: 02 nuan nuoc Minh Minh Industry prospects in the last 6 months of Vietnamese Dragon Securities (VDSC), this unit said that the banking industry has a lot of motivation to grow in the context of complicated movements.Casa develops maximum effects Last time, the growth motivation was different among banks but mostly showed significant improvement directions
. Particularly in the first half of 2021, NIM (year-by-year rules) increased on low platforms thanks to the lending interest rate difference and expanding mobilization. According to VDSC experts, NIM can still be higher at some banks towards At the end of the year, depends on non-term deposits (CASA). Competitives, in the second half of 2021, thanks to a retail banking center, retail penetration rate is supported by non-cash payment trends and Digital conversion will make the CASA race more competitive in charge, and improve CASA with different speeds between banks
Others, VDSC said that the supported interest rate package can hold the expansion trend of NIM . Although it is difficult to reduce deeply due to anchor according to long-term interest rates, support credit packages have impacted lending interest rates. Nim variable of listed banks in the past time, due to difference Term and re-evaluation, interest rate reduction in banks has not agreed on the level, time and speed depending on the lending structure. This puts pressure on NIM and since then, affecting the effectiveness of the balance sheet. The lending rate will continue to decline in the second half of 2021 with new support packages, but the level of influence will still be stool . In 2022, lending rates can increase again if the translation is better controlled. "With credit growth of positive expectations, NIM may decrease slightly and the balance sheet is more cautious, interest income Pure in the last 6 months of the year is expected to grow slower than the first half of the year. The difference will be in NIM, when banks have loan interest rates are not affected and the rate of CASA improves will benefit, "VDSC rated In addition to interest rising sharply thanks to Bancassurance Currently, the business results of some banks are supported by income outside interest growth thanks to bancassurance, bond trading and payment. In the second half of 2021, VDSC period Luchic income of Bancassurance is well maintained thanks to the digitization process to create favorable conditions for advising insurance to buy insurance without being affected by social ways. However, this strength and growth of this segment are different from banks and partners
In addition to interest income of listed banks with that, the change of customer behavior with the trend of loving online transactions Comes with competitive transaction fees are a support factor for income from service segments. Look generally, VDSC forecasts that the operating income of banks will continue to grow well, but the increase will be lower Compared to the first half of the year when the State Bank became cautious in the issuance of credit limits. Although it is still expected to loosen the level of limits, but the time of the new level of credit growth will have an impact on the growth rate of balance sheet compared to the same period and from there, affecting operating income Quarterly. "Interest income growth will become the main driving force, sustainably maintained thanks to the stable trends of Bancassurance and payment, the growth rate of bond business and potential to recover bad debts ", according to VDSC. The decrease in the study of the study at VDSC also shows that the cutting of wages has an immediate impact on the cost of income (CIR), so helps banks deal With shock in NIM. With banks with nim affected, high credit costs and large risk lending, the impact will be more severe, to optimize the growth weight balance with lower NIM and projection costs Rooms are higher, the scale of employees is cut to ensure operational efficiency. On the one hand, VDSC said that this method is unsustainable, however, this change is necessary. "If the pandemic extends, we believe that the banks are less excessive in the second half 2021 in continuing to cut costs through salaries or personnel because there will be an impact on operating scale, "said VDSC experts and growth and growth costs of staff - . Dịch vụ:
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